Estimates of the aboveground stock of gold (1492-2012)
Those of you who regularly follow this blog will find this topic familiar. This is because it is the second paper I have just published on this question; in the first one (2012), “The aboveground gold stock: its importance and size”, published by the GoldMoney Foundation, James Turk and myself mainly focused on the analysis of the available estimates of the stock of gold and concluded that most of them overestimated the stock of gold in 1492; which necessarily leads to a less amount of gold in the present time (the study also includes a very useful and comprehensive statistical annex).
In this one (“New estimates of the stock of gold (1492-2012)”, full text published in Moneta 156), I offer alternative estimates of the stock of gold in 1492 using different sources of (indirect) information, which include the analysis of the research made by economic historians, geologists and economists. As a result, an interval estimate of the stock of gold in 1492 is offered; one which is again much lower (see the table below) than the one implied according to the current estimates of the stock of gold and the data we have on gold production since the discovery of the Americas. Taking these new estimates as a starting point, I also include a full series on gold production since 1492 (a series collected from different sources) and a new series on the stock of gold since 1492 to 2012.
There might be several implications for the analysis of the current gold market as, according to this research, the aboveground stock of gold in our days may be around a 10% lower than the “official” figures (as published by the World Gold Council). Of course, due to the nature of this research and the lack of (much) reliable information on this issue for such a long time period, the results must be interpreted with due cautious; and I would welcome more research on this topic to refine the current estimates.
Anyhow, find below the table with the main results of the paper (in tonnes of gold):
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1.World Gold Council aboveground gold stock in 2012
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174,147
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2.Gold production 1493-2012
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157,162
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3.Implied World Gold Council estimate of aboveground gold stock in 1492 (1-2)
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16,985
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4.Our high estimate of aboveground gold stock in 1492
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1,275
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5.Overstatement of the aboveground gold stock (3-4)
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15,710
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6.Our high estimate of aboveground gold stock in 2012 (2+4)
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158,437
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7.Overestimation of the current aboveground gold stock (2012) (1-6)
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15,710
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More details on the estimates can be found here; a video with the presentation of the paper in a recent seminar organised in Madrid last May organised by Prof. G. Depeyrot as part of the activities of the Damin project, which is a world-wide research network of scholars interested in the study of precious metals and monetary issues in the 19th century.
I hope it can be of some interest. Comments very welcome.
Juan Castañeda
PS. Link to the video with the presentation of the research paper and many others: http://www.anr-damin.net/spip.php?article60
the old lady of threadneedle street 
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