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Posts Tagged ‘euro performance index’

An optimality index of the single currency: internal asymmetries within the Eurozone and the USA since 1999

We have measured the macroeconomic dispersion within the Eurozone (see further details here on the indicators we have used) and this is in a nutshell how the euro (12 and 19) has performed since its launched in 1999.

 

As shown in the chart above we have added Target2 balances in the calculation of the (overall) index of internal dispersion; which is in fact an index of divergence within the Eurozone. The empirical conclusions are quite revealing, and somehow the expected ones: (1) in the good years (1999-2007), overall dispersion increased quite notably (it doubled!); (2) after the 2008-09 crisis, divergence deteriorated much more sharply and, leaving Target2 balances aside, the trend has been reversed and the index shows signs of improvement (though at a very slow pace).

We have also calculated an index of macroeconomic dispersion for the (mainland US) dollar area, using the same methodology. The chart below shows the trends in dispersion/internal asymmetries in this two major monetary areas:

 

There are many questions to discuss on this issue: among others, I will just mention three: (1) should we or should we not add Target2 balances to the calculation of the index of dispersion? (effectively, do Target2 balances matter?); (2) since the US is indeed a banking union, should we factor in monetary dispersion across States?; and (3) do the charts above suggest that the policies implemented during the recent crisis are the right ones in order to achieve a greater degree of convergence in the Eurozone?

We will discuss these questions and the charts above, and what they mean for the interpretation of convergence trends in the Eurozone, in a two-day conference at the University of Buckingham this week (21-22 February): The Economics of Monetary Unions. Past Experiences and the Eurozone. If you cannot make it, you will be able to follow the presentations live online. More information on the full programme here and how to follow it at the Institute of International Monetary Research social media.

All welcome.

 

Juan Castañeda

 

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